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Spoiler Alert: I pick all home teams.
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
For your boredom pleasure, here are the QB ratings for opposing quarterbacks playing the Jets:
Matt Schaub 55.9, Tom Brady 53.1, Kerry Collins 41.5, Drew Brees 78.9, Chad Henne 130.4 (lolwut), Ryan Fitzpatrick 51.4 relieved by Trent Edwards who went 5-for-5 and had a bullcrap 102.5 rating, Bruce Gradkowski 67.2 and JaMarcus Russell 31.1 (a good day), Chad Henne 87.8, David Garrard 101.6, Tom Brady 98.6, Jake Delhomme....*drumroll*.....12.7, Ryan Fitzpatrick 34.3, Josh Freeman 12.1, Matt Ryan 69.7, Peyton Manning 95.7 relieved by the Talented Curtis Painter 11.2, Carson Palmer 1.7 with J.T. O'Sullivan 49.5
(The opponent's effort on display in the last two games was.....not on display.)
Am I picking the Jets? No. I am sooooooo on the fence with the Jets. I feel like I need to Mark Sanchez's QB play or get off the pot. See what I did there? I am going to talk my way through this with some stream of consciousness.
So the Jets, right, they have what I call WTF losses. The worry is the great defense will be summarily and vomitously negated by the play of Mark Sanchez. His play cost them against the Falcons, Bills and Saints. Other WTF losses include the Dolphins game in which Ted Ginn had two return touchdowns to offset 104 total yards and the Jaguars game in which the Jaguars beat a decent team, thus WTF.
But then, I think to myself, the Bengals had the ultimate WTF loss in Week One when Brandon Stokley caught a miracle hail mary and scored a miracle touchdown. The events made Gus Johnson raise his voice. The Bengals also lost to the Raiders on a late fumble and the Chargers in a close contest.
When analyzing the Jets, I'm going to ignore the last two games. Yes, they count, but would you draw any conclusions from individual player performance from either of those games? I sure as hell would not, and you cannot get more sure than the pits of hell. Of the remaining games, Sanchez started 13, and in those 13 games the opposing QB had what I would call a "good game" exactly three times. Despite that, Sanchez was basically a coin flip, statistically outperforming the opposing QBs in seven of the thirteen games.
Turnover fest, you ask? Probably. But you wonder if that advantage exists when the Jets are +1 and the Bengals are 0 in turnover differential. I was +10 with my grandmother's apple turnover differential over the holidays. You can read all about it in my new book: "Forced Jokes." We have two teams that rely heavily on stifling defense and extremely boring offense. The only confident advantage I'm feeling in my gut and gullet is the home field and Carson Palmer. Sure, the Jets have only allowed eight touchdown passes, but this is a game where 17 points could win it. All you need is one. *doo doo, doo doo doo*
That's it. I typed all that and here we are. You and me. You got a better idea who'll win? Do ya?
Bengals (-2.5) 17 Jets 13
Baltmore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Interesting facts about the Patriots:
-They lead the league in time of possession. They average a ridiculous 35:47 at home. That's WITHOUT running a wildcat. Magnificent.
-They average 28.2 penalty yards per game at home, fewest in the league. Conversely, the Ravens average 74.9 penalty yards on the road, most in the league. Trend city.
-The Patriots ran the ball 466 times this year. The Ravens ran the ball 468 times this year. I thought the Ravens ran the ball WAY more.
Okay sure, the Patriots aren't running the ball on the Ravens, I get it. They averaged 4.1 yards per carry in '09, so it's not like they need to run to win anyway. When these two mediocre teams played each other in October, the Pats won passing YPP (6.7 to 5.0) and penalties (85 to 41). That's right, I'm figuring penalties into my pick. BEHOLD THE EVOLUTION OF PICKS. Two of the Pats TD drives in October continued with the help of costly Raven penalties. I don't expect the Ravens to get discipline out of nowhere.
[Editor's Note: There is no editor. I just realized one of those penalties occurred on that infamous play when Brady was barely touched, and he cried to his mother. Worth mentioning.]
Of course, dear reader, you are countering with "well they averaged 2.8 YPC against the mighty Ravens and the old warrior Ray Lewis." Who cares? Ray Lewis has the lateral quickness of a saint bernard, although most saint bernards can be taught the electric slide. The Pats will throw it to the runningbacks again, as they did in October with eight RB receptions, five of which resulted in first downs. I shut you down, dear reader. For good.
Thesis Statement: Too much home cooking in a close game.
Patriots (-3.5) 24 Ravens 19
NFC continued after the jump
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Ever notice when someone picks games, he/she often uses the "I just don't see that happening" card. Cool. Justification cinched.
Brian Westbrook running for 200 yards? I just don't see that happening.
DeSean Jackson scoring a touchdown and refusing to look stupid? I just don't see that happening.
The mammoth jumbotron collapsing and landing on Roy Williams? I....can see that happening.
Brent Celek usurping my unfortunately highly drafted tight end Jason Witten on my fantasy team? That just happened.
Tony Romo appearing 25% less podunk? I just don't see that happening.
Andy Reid judiciously using timeouts like he judiciously *fat joke*? I just don't see that happening.
Eagles 31, Cowboys 20? I just don't see that happening.
Cowboys 27 (-3.5) Eagles 21
......oh, you want a rehashed reason with arbitrary statistics that can be easily refuted? YOU GOT IT.
Philadelphia couldn't sustain a drive if Michael Irvin's neck depended on it (too late?). They're 26:23 average TOP ranks them 25th in the league. The Eagles offense wins games with big plays, evidenced by their 4.40 points per play clip, good for fifth. HOWEVAH, Dallas' defense is second in the league in points per play allowed (.255). I am thoroughly impressed with these numbers and their implied meanings. Dallas shuts down the big plays, but somehow Philadelphia scores 21 points. Whatever.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
I'll let the Green Bay Packer offensive line take us out...
Chad Clifton: What.THE.HELL?
Josh Sitton: We've allowed just seven sacks the last six games. SEVEN. Jared Allen had seven and a half by himself, guys. By himself! Guys!
Chad Clifton: Did you see how the Cardinals just quit. Why can't we quit like that?
Josh Sitton: I'll tell you why. It's cause we gotta mole in our unit. A lineman who constantly gives effort. A lineman who seems to forget the clarion call of tackling a Brett Favre interceptor. A spy. A monster like in The Thing circa 1982.
*They stare at Mark Tauscher*
Chad Clifton: ........Mark....what are you doing?
Mark Tauscher: I'm, uh, getting some tickets for family and friends?
Chad Clifton: Give me that personal digital assistant.
*Clifton takes the PDA and upon seeing the screen, he screeches like a little girl*
Chad Clifton: YOU WERE TEXTING THE GREAT SATAN!?
Mark Tauscher: Ugh, I'm out of here. You guys are worse than Benny Hinn.
*Tauscher and half the team exeunt*
Chad Clifton: Sitton, hold my hand.
Josh Sitton: ...right
Chad Clifton: Cosmos, as Brett is my witness, I will be an effort black hole on the field today. All those near me will feel my quitting wrath. We shall not meet Brett in the playoffs, because that is when Brett is Brett. His prophesy must be fulfilled against, you know, some other team. Amen or whatever.
Josh Sitton: Amen
*Enter Aaron Rodgers*
Aaron Rodgers: Hey guys, how's it going?
*Exit Aaron Rodgers*
.......................Chad Clifton: BRETT BLESS AMERICA, WE WILL LOSE Arizona 31 (PK), Green Bay 28
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