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What did I learn last week? Just kidding, I refuse to learn anything, and I never admit wrongdoing, but let's review.
AFC- Very wrong. Extraordinarily wrong. Not only did the teams I picked lose, they refused to show up. I assumed the Patriot passing advantage and poise would carry them through the day, but then they poised their pants and lost to a quarterback who completed four passes. I won't lie, it was pretty fun to watch. I will lie, I saw it coming.
Meanwhile, never pick the Bengals to win a playoff game. You hurt the ones you love in doing so. I can risk that because I don't love anyone. Wow, I am really opening up in this post! Mark Sanchez is officially management material with a line of 12-15 for 182 and a TD.
NFC- Ah, much better. I cannot WAIT for another offseason of Philadelphia coach/QB/fan/mascot turmoil that will eventually result in the status quo for the team: an often promising season derailed by an early playoff exit. Set your clocks.
The Packers and Cardinals played a game that would give Rex Ryan a heart attack. The Cards averaged a funlicious (TM) 9.3 yards per play, or three times that of New England. Oops, pot shot. Slipped.
Here's a fake piece of hate mail someone sent me for picking all home teams:
Hey bud, what's the deal? Men don't pick all home teams. If you do it again I'm going to send extra hate through the internet. Did you know home teams are 7-9 in the divisional round since 2005? DID YOU KNOW THAT? Urge to type in all caps RISING!!!!!!!
-Mom
Thanks for that. Yes, I picked all home teams because I am a master of cop outs. It allows me the satisfaction of besting Ron Jaworski. It also guarantees an average performance, which is what I'm all about. With LOTS OF ADO, I'm going to pick the home teams again...
Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Last week, the Ravens got to rest Joe Flacco......wait he played? Oh sorry.
What's a little scary is how statistically even the two offenses are, despite different aims. 26.0 PPG for the Colts, 24.4 for the Ravens. 363 YPG for the Colts, 351 for the Ravens, etc. The big difference is third down conversions, where the Colts post a league best 49.2%, while the Ravens stand at 41.6%. This is the stat I will hitch my wagon to. The Colts offense stays on the field: 1st in first downs per play, 3rd in first downs per game, 1st in passing first downs per game. The problem is the defense allows teams to do the same: 24th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in first downs per game allowed. What do all these numbers mean?
Nothing. Peyton Manning.
Indianapolis 27, Baltimore 14
(Remember, I'm the master of cop outs, but find a Colts pick on the internet that has nothing to do with Peyton Manning, and I will send you a prize pack. Prizes subject to not exist.)
NY Jets @ San Diego (-7)
Usually a 9-7 team that recorded their eighth and ninth wins in dubious fashion would be pick poison. Not the Jets. This should be an intense battle of strength versus strength, with some weakness thrown in there to make it fair. San Diego averages a league best 8.4 yards per passing attempt, but the Jets counter with a 4.8 opposing yards per attempt.
It's just. I mean. San Diego has won 11 in a row and momentum and all that fun stuff!
San Diego is good. Sure, their defense applies token pressure, they give up a decent chunk of yards, and they can't run to save their life or our lives by 2012. But they are good enough to hold off the Jets because they NEVER turn the ball over (17 total, good for 2nd). The Jets need turnovers to score, yes? BTW, I belong to a band called Stat Power, but I'm really picking the Bolts because Rex Ryan cried that one time.
San Diego 23, NY Jets 17
Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)
Oh BOY! The first and seventh best teams in points per play. IT'S ABOUT TO GET CRAAAAAAZY UP IN HERE.
Arizona didn't really tackle last week, and they were one overthrown pass away from blowing a 31-10 lead in a loss. Here's some fun: At home, every two plays is worth one point for the Saints. Arizona allows 63.9 plays per game on the road. Can Arizona win if the Saints score 32 offensive points? Throw in the possibility for return TDs, and you have an O/U that should be 35.
And Kurt Warner needs to retire in the land of the Saints, because he is one *cue choir*.
According to my calculations:
New Orleans 102, Arizona 4
Dallas @ Minnesota (-3)
Here's the game I stuggled the most with taking the easy way out. Home.Home.Home!!!!
Tony Romo versus Brett Favre. The sportswriters will need moments alone to "collect their thoughts" if you catch my drift. Some of that drift is hot dog gas! Right, football.
I think Minnesota is the ideal team to cause Dallas discomfort. At home, they allow 3.6 yards per carry, average an 8.7% sack percentage, and maintain a .3475 Favre quotient. A Favre quotient of .3212 is sufficient enough, throw in .263 of extra Favre, and teams won't know what hit them, because the statistic is nonexistant. Meanwhile, Dallas waltzs in with a .128 Favre quotient, which is garbage and worthy of calling a sports talk show and yelling about it. Dallas has a very good rush defense, but Brad Childress hates Adrian Peterson. Both QBs have been sacked 34 times, so consider Jared Allen and DeMarcus Ware a tradeoff.
Prediction: Brett Favre gets benched and Dallas gets TARVARIS'd
Minnesota 30, Dallas 23
All.Home.Teams.EAT.IT.
Update: I'm 6-2 against the points. Alert the press.
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